Stand with Ukraine

It was one of the most moving moments I can remember in the House of Commons. Just before PMQs on Wednesday (which were appropriately sombre and statesmanlike), Mr Speaker welcomed to the Gallery the Ukrainian Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko. The whole House quite spontaneously leaped to its feet and gave the Ambassador an unheard of standing ovation lasting several minutes. I have never seen anything like it, and I nearly blubbed. The strength of feeling, the compassion for poor Ukraine, the concern for the refugees and those being bombed and worse was palpable. Add to that the blue and yellow ribbons in every single lapel; the blue shirts and yellow ties, and one or two of the ladies looking as if they were draped in the Ukrainian flag and you have one of the most powerful demonstrations of support for that beleaguered country that can be imagined.No one can know what will happen next. It looks as if the invasion has been a lot slower and more difficult than Putin anticipated; supply lines have proved difficult, and morale amongst the 70% conscript Russian Army seems to be very low. The Ukrainian people are being incredibly brave and resilient, and they will resist and continue to resist as the Maquis did in wartime France, perhaps for many years to come. Despite all of that, it cannot be denied that the overwhelming firepower and equipment of the advancing Russian Army will soon mean that all of the major cities are surrounded, if not yet conquered. Fighting in city streets (Kyiv is three times the size of Manchester) is notoriously difficult. Taking and holding a city for the long term near to impossible. So what will Putin do? I have the most horrible anticipation that he will carpet bomb Kyiv with a terrifying loss of civilian life. He has already shown his readiness to use cluster bombs and other vicious (and very probably illegal) anti-personnel weapons, and Kherson, the first City to fall to the Russians, gives us a flavour of what to expect in Kyiv.Russian military theory of “escalate to de-escalate” can be used by them to justify outrageous and otherwise illegal tactics. It may even extend to the ‘tactical’ use of the nuclear arsenal already deployed to Belarus in a way that he has practiced during the annual Zapad exercises. Putin believes that the threat of using a nuclear bomb on a major city, for example, would be enough to make that city surrender. But you can only threaten violence if, in extremis, you are ready to carry out your threat. His casual mention of his nuclear capability is also a warning to the West not to interfere in the shooting war on the ground. The deterrent effect of Mutually Assured Destruction only works if your enemy is as rational as you are. Putin is mad and wicked, and if his dreadful Ukrainian venture is not looking a success, there can be no knowing what he may do.That gloomy outlook is slightly improved by what are already looking like very effective sanctions. Moscow is in deep economic trouble; the banks are collapsing, the supermarket shelves empty. The war is costing Russia an estimated £15 Billion per day – which cannot be sustained very long by a bankrupt country. We are already starting to see military shortages of food and ammunition. Sooner or later Russia will implode in a way we cannot currently imagine.So for now, let us do all we can to help with the vast flow of refugees streaming into Poland; let us prepare for the huge humanitarian effort which will without doubt be needed; and let us keep tightening our vice-like grip around the neck of the Russian bear. We are aghast at the carnage we witness every day on our TV screens. But that will not last for ever – justice and right; humanity and democracy will in the end triumph. Of that we can be sure.