What a week it has been. The Chequers agreement is a great deal less than I had hoped for. What we are now proposing for ‘The Deal’ is by no means as clear and robust as the 52% who voted ‘Leave’ expected. I have warned the whips that they cannot rely on my support for it when it comes before the House for ratification in the Autumn. That means that even if M Barnier allows it through unamended (which seems very unlikely, and we will certainly not tolerate any further slippage- for example on the free movement of European citizens) there is little chance that the PM will get it through Parliament. She must therefore think again and come up with a plan which much more closely fulfils the will of the people, and her own promises that ‘Brexit means Brexit’, and that ‘No deal is better than a bad deal.’
Westminster in Turmoil - Cabinet resignations, calls for a Leadership challenge (which I do not support), the Commons and media overheating badly in the record sunshine and 31 degrees; all of that almost pales into insignificance by comparison with other events. The NATO Summit could have consequences for all of our long-term peace and security. If Mr Trump, for example, were to threaten to withdraw US troops from Europe, Mr Putin would be rubbing his hands with glee. Meanwhile, we have the tragic new case of Novichock poisoning in Salisbury, and the sad death of Dawn Sturgess. That makes it a murder case, a foreign national having murdered a British citizen on British territory. That is a crime which cannot come without consequence. We rejoice at the rescue of the Thai boys from their underground prison; and of course, perhaps more than anything else, we rejoice that we have an England team in the World Cup semi-finals for the first time in half a century. (By the time you read this we will know more. Meanwhile, fingers crossed.)
Things are moving so fast in the world and in Westminster, that despite the fact that I am writing this on Tuesday morning, it may be (wholly or partially) out of date by the time you read it on Thursday. As Macmillan remarked, it is ‘events, dear boy, events” which will either hand us good fortune, or, I suppose rob us of it… It’s the unexpected and the random which makes or breaks a government.