A Marxist, an IRA supporter and a Republican walk into a pub. The barman asks: “What can I get you, Mr Corbyn?”
It should perhaps not surprise us to hear that other Marxist-Leninist hater of the Union (if lover of the Trade Union), John McDonnell, tell the Edinburgh Festival, that he “would not stop a second Scottish Independence Referendum”, thereby throwing Scottish Labour who have fought so passionately against any such thing, into a kilt-whirling, caber-tossing, haggis-mangling fury.
But was it not even more extraordinary to hear him announce that in the event of a No-Confidence motion being passed in early September (and the Labour whips have cancelled all ‘slips’ which allow MPs to be absent from Parliament for the first week back), he would “send Jeremy Corbyn off to Buckingham Palace in a black cab to tell the Queen that we are taking control of the Government.” We know that he is a supporter of coups in assorted dodgy republics around the world; but was it not astonishing to hear the Shadow Chancellor, a leading member of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to give them their proper title, propose such a thing in our great democratic law-abiding country?
The Constitutional reality is that in the event of losing a No Confidence vote in September, Boris would then have two weeks in which to form a new Government. There is, I think a very good chance that even if one or two Tories, like Dominic Grieve, for example, had voted against their own Government on the first occasion, that they would swing round behind us the second time around. There are also 20 or 30 Labour MPs who support Brexit, and who might at very least abstain rather than vote with Corbyn.
At all events, the precedent of James Callaghan’s loss of office after a no confidence motion in 1979 (the only other occasion on which such a thing has occurred) is that he remained PM for about a month until the new Government was formed. That, indeed, is what always happens at a General Election. So I have every confidence that Mr Corbyn’s black cab would be turned away at the gates of Buckingham Palace.
By far the most likely outcome of any such no confidence motion after a failure by the EU to agree to new negotiations, would surely be an Election. My own guess would be that it will be called after the Party Conferences in early October with the actual election on my birthday, 7th November, neatly avoiding Remembrance Sunday the following weekend. The campaign would therefore straddle the 31 October Brexit day, thereby emasculating the Brexit Party. (We all want to leave with a Deal- but no negotiation in the history of negotiations has ever succeeded with no option to walk away from it.)
And after all, if Mr Corbyn is afraid that we might leave the EU during a General Election campaign, then he has a very straightforward way of preventing it – by not calling for a Vote of no Confidence. Simples.
You heard it here first! These are the dog days of Summer, when analysts and journalists allow their minds to wander. The reality may be quite different. But there’s something rather neat about it. We shall see….